The 3-3 Denver Broncos head to The Big Easy to take on the 2-4 New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome for a Thursday Night Football showdown to kick-start Week 7.
Denver had a three-game winning streak snapped last week, while New Orleans has dropped four straight. Here’s our look at the opening Week 7 NFL odds for Thursday Night Football plus our early NFL picks and Broncos vs. Saints predictions for the marquee matchup.
Broncos vs Saints predictions
Early spread leanBroncos +1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler didn’t impress me in his NFL debut on Sunday. He threw for just 6.1 yards per attempt and a 55% completion rate with two interceptions. Rattler now has a quick turnaround against a clicking defense that is collectively playing way better than the sum of its parts.
Hat tip to Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.
The Saints offense could also be without No. 1 wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion), Jack-of-all-trades playmaker Taysom Hill (ribs), right guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), and center Lucas Patrick (chest) on the short week. New Orleans has injuries lingering on the stop unit, too.
Turning to that Denver defense, the Broncos are allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per play and third-fewest yards per play while also ranking fourth in defensive DVOA and fourth in defense grade per PFF. Additionally, Olave’s likely absence helps mitigate the damage of Denver missing star cornerback Patrick Surtain (concussion).
I also value Broncos head coach Sean Payton sporting a 53-36-2 (59.3%) record against the spread as an underdog, while Saints head coach Dennis Allen is just 9-17-1 (35.2%) ATS as a favorite. Payton doesn’t have the Broncos buzzing on offense, but quarterback Bo Nix has only turned the ball over once during Denver’s active 3-1 stretch.
Protecting the football and playing top-tier defense is a recipe for success, and it’s a recipe that travels well — especially on a short week.
Early Over/Under leanOver 37.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Even with the highlighted strength of the Denver stop unit, I expect both teams to put points on the board. New Orleans has played to the Over in four of six games with those four going for 50+ points.
Plus, as noted, Nix is showing signs and could be gifted multiple short fields if Rattler is turnover-happy again.
Denver has also put points on the board against weak defenses, and New Orleans is trending in that direction as injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball.
The Saints have surrendered the second-most yards per play, and they’re allowing the eighth-highest EPA per play and highest EPA per rush during their four-game losing skid. For comparison, New Orleans ranked second-lowest in both metrics through the first two weeks.
This is also the lowest total of the season for New Orleans, while Denver has gone Over the number (36.0 and 37.0 totals) in each of the past two weeks.
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Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.
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